For a country of over 200 million people, Nigeria has seemingly been planning in the dark for far too long. The last national census was conducted 20 years ago in 2006. Since then, budgets, revenue sharing, schools, hospitals, and policies have all been based on projections and estimates. This should not continue. Guestimates, no matter their coverage, cannot reflect reality, so we must stop guessing. Nigeria urgently needs a credible, technology-driven national census.
Since independence, population head counts have been held in 1953, 1963, 1973 and 2006; which was the last census exercise in the country. The next was supposed to have come up in 2016 but was postponed to 2018 and 2023 was postponed too.
The 1963 census put Nigeria’s population at 55.6 million. The 1973 exercise was annulled due to widespread allegations of manipulation. The 1991 census, conducted under military rule, recorded 88.9 million. The most recent in 2006 put the population at 140.4 million, with a male-female ratio and state breakdowns that have been contested ever since.
Relying on 2006 figures adjusted with growth rates means we are governing today with yesterday’s map. But the importance of accurate national planning cannot be overemphasised.
True development should begin with data. For instance, how many classrooms do a state need next year? How many primary health centres should a state build? Where should new roads, water schemes, and power lines go?
A new census will give us an updated demographic map: age structure, birth and death rates, migration patterns, and household sizes. With that, the National Bureau of Statistics, the Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning, and state planning commissions can design budgets that reflect reality, not history.
Section 8(3) of the 1999 Constitution and the Revenue Allocation Formula both use population as a major factor in sharing federal resources. When the numbers are outdated, the sharing becomes unfair.
Since 2006, states and LGAs have argued in court and in the media over who is bigger and who deserves more. A credible census settles that with facts. It ensures money for education, health, security, and infrastructure follows the people.
It also strengthens our democracy. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) needs current population and housing data to create constituencies, polling units, and distribute election materials fairly. You cannot have one-person-one-vote if you don’t know where the persons are.
With Nigeria’s greatest asset being its people, especially the youth, we cannot empower what we have not measured.
A census provides disaggregated data on education levels, literacy, employment, disability, and housing. That information is critical for student loans, conditional cash transfers, agricultural grants, and agribusiness schemes. How do you target beneficiaries if you don’t know how many unemployed youths exist in each LGA? How do you plan maternal health services if you don’t know how many women of childbearing age live in a community?
It is also a fact that insecurity, climate change, and internal displacement have reshaped where Nigerians live. Entire communities have moved. New settlements have sprung up.
A census will help security agencies, emergency management agencies and humanitarian actors know where people are concentrated. It will aid planning for internally displaced persons camps, disaster response, and policing. You cannot protect citizens if you do not know where they are.
The usual arguments against a census are cost, politics, and mistrust. Yes, a census is expensive. But the cost of not having one is higher. We waste billions yearly on projects in the wrong places, on ghost workers, and on interventions that miss their targets because we used wrong data.
Past censuses were marred by allegations of inflation and undercounting in different areas. That is why the National Population Commission, NPC, must use technology this time. Biometric capture, satellite mapping, GIS, and real-time data upload can reduce manipulation and improve transparency. The process must be independent, well-funded, and monitored by civil society and the media.
The Federal Government, in consultations with stakeholders at the international, regional and local levels, must come up with a firm date and commit the funds. Delay breeds uncertainty. The NPC must begin massive public enlightenment. Nigerians must understand that census is not for taxation or ethnic advantage. It is for schools, hospitals, and jobs.
A nation that does not know its people cannot serve its people. For 20 years we have planned Nigeria with outdated information. The result is congestion in some cities, neglect in others, and millions of citizens invisible to the system.
Nigeria cannot afford another decade of planning in the dark. We must resist the antics of those who put cogs in the wheel of our progress by seeing the headcount purely as a game of numbers as to which religion has more adherents, or which region is more populous. It should be about credible data for sustainable development. The time to conduct a national census, therefore, is now.