Key Takeaways
- Tope Fasua, Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Economic Matters, believes Nigeria's economy is recovering from the initial shocks of recent reforms.
- The removal of the petrol subsidy and unification of the foreign exchange market caused significant disruptions in late 2023 and 2024.
- Fasua cited a 443 percent gross domestic product growth recorded in the second quarter of 2026 as evidence of improving economic activity.
- He attributed the manufacturing sector's declining share of GDP to the rapid expansion of the services sector, not a significant drop in manufacturing.
- The government's focus should now shift to increasing productivity and adding value to Nigeria's resources, maintaining the current policy direction.
Nigeria's economy is beginning to show signs of recovery from the profound shocks induced by the Bola Tinubu administration's ambitious reforms, according to Tope Fasua, the Special Adviser to the President on Economic Matters. Speaking in a recent interview with Arise News, Fasua acknowledged the significant disruptions caused by the removal of the petrol subsidy and the unification of the foreign exchange market, particularly felt throughout late 2023 and into 2024.
“The worst we got was late 2023, the shock, immediate shock, after-effect of those reforms in 2023. And of course, 2024 was a tough year,” Fasua stated. He added, “2025 was the year that inflation started to reduce, not only because it was rebased, but because prices started to fall.” This perspective suggests a forward-looking view on the trajectory of inflation, indicating a belief that the peak of economic hardship is receding.
Fasua pointed to several recent economic indicators as evidence of the nascent recovery. Notably, he cited Nigeria’s 443 percent gross domestic product growth recorded in the second quarter of 2026, a figure he highlighted as exceptionally strong. “The 443 percent growth you’re seeing is the highest in 11 years, since 2015 first quarter. In fact, if you like, since 2014 fourth quarter. That is the highest growth rate,” he explained, underscoring the perceived strength of this particular economic performance.
The presidential aide also addressed concerns regarding the manufacturing sector's seemingly diminishing contribution to the nation's GDP. He clarified that this trend is largely a consequence of the robust and rapid expansion within the services sector, rather than a substantial decline in manufacturing output itself. “The manufacturing sector has always hovered between 7 to 9 percent in this country. And it’s because of the growth in services sector nationwide that you have come down to 7.7 percent,” Fasua elaborated. He further noted, “It only went down 0.01 percent between one quarter to the other, because services sector is growing.” This explanation suggests a rebalancing of the economy rather than a contraction in a key productive area.
Beyond GDP figures, Fasua highlighted other positive developments, including ongoing bank recapitalisation efforts, sustained growth in the stock market, and increased investment within the insurance sector. These indicators, he argued, collectively paint a picture of improving economic conditions and investor confidence.
Despite these optimistic assessments, Fasua stressed that the government's strategic focus must now evolve. He urged a shift from merely managing the immediate shocks and after-effects of the reforms to actively pursuing increased productivity and adding substantial value to Nigeria’s abundant natural resources. This pivot is crucial for translating short-term stability into long-term sustainable growth and prosperity.
Crucially, Fasua advised the administration to steadfastly maintain its current policy direction, cautioning against any reversal of the reforms already implemented. When questioned about the government’s economic strategy leading up to the 2027 elections, he affirmed the administration's commitment to continuity. “Certainly to stay the course, really,” he asserted, indicating a firm resolve to see the reforms through to their intended conclusion.
While acknowledging the initial pain and adjustment period experienced by citizens, Fasua expressed confidence that the economy is now transitioning into a phase where the tangible benefits of these difficult but necessary reforms will become increasingly apparent to the populace.
Why This Matters
Tope Fasua's statements offer a crucial insight into the Tinubu administration's perspective on Nigeria's economic trajectory, suggesting a belief that the most challenging period of reform-induced shocks is passing. His emphasis on maintaining policy consistency and shifting focus to productivity underscores the government's long-term vision for economic stability and growth, despite the significant public hardship experienced during the initial implementation of these policies.