The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has said the newly introduced 12.5 per cent tariff by the United States on imports from Nigeria is unlikely to have any significant impact on the country’s economy, arguing that the bulk of Nigeria’s exports to the US remain exempt from the measure.
In a policy brief issued on Saturday, the Chief Executive Officer of CPPE, Dr Muda Yusuf, said although the tariff had generated concern, its direct implications for Nigeria’s export earnings and macroeconomic performance should not be exaggerated.
“The economic impact of the tariffs is unlikely to be significant,” Yusuf said.
He urged Nigeria to respond by accelerating export diversification, improving manufacturing competitiveness and increasing domestic value addition, while taking advantage of opportunities under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Yusuf also called on the Federal Government to strengthen labour standards, improve supply chain transparency and sustain engagement with the United States.
“Nigeria should also sustain efforts to strengthen labour standards, improve supply chain transparency and engage proactively with the United States through diplomatic and trade channels to seek clarity on the implementation of the new measures and minimise any adverse effects on affected exporters,” he said.
Daily Trust reports that the United States last week imposed a 12.5 per cent tariff on imports from Nigeria under a new trade policy targeting countries that Washington says have failed to establish and enforce prohibitions on the importation of goods produced with forced labour.
The tariff, announced by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), forms part of a broader trade action affecting 60 economies investigated under Section 301 of the US Trade Act. The measure is aimed at encouraging trading partners to strengthen efforts to prevent forced labour from entering global supply chains.
According to Yusuf, the new tariff regime is essentially a continuation of the reciprocal tariff policy introduced during the administration of former US President Donald Trump, although it is now being implemented under a different legal framework.
“Following the judicial invalidation of the earlier reciprocal tariffs, the current measures appear to have been restructured under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act, with allegations relating to forced labour providing the statutory basis for their implementation,” he said.
Yusuf added that despite the change in legal framework, “the underlying policy objective remains essentially the same: protecting U.S. domestic industries, strengthening American manufacturing competitiveness and advancing broader U.S. trade and economic interests.”
Explaining why Nigeria’s exposure is limited, Yusuf noted that crude oil, liquefied natural gas and other petroleum products account for more than 80 per cent of Nigeria’s exports to the United States and have been excluded from the new tariff measures.
“The first reason is that Nigeria’s exports to the United States are heavily concentrated in crude oil, liquefied natural gas and other petroleum products, which account for more than 80% of Nigeria’s merchandise exports to the U.S. These products have been exempted from the tariff measures, leaving the bulk of Nigeria’s exports unaffected,” he stated.
He also pointed out that the United States is not Nigeria’s largest export destination.
Citing first-quarter 2026 merchandise trade statistics, Yusuf said Nigeria recorded exports of approximately ₦21.6 trillion during the period, with exports to the United States accounting for only 5.56 per cent.
“By comparison, India accounted for 13.09%, France 9.29%, the Netherlands 9.22%, and Spain 7.68%. The United States ranked only the fifth-largest destination for Nigerian exports during the quarter,” he said.
According to the CPPE chief, these trade patterns substantially reduce Nigeria’s vulnerability to the new tariff regime.
“While some non-oil exporters, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing, may experience reduced competitiveness in the U.S. market, the overall impact on Nigeria’s export earnings, foreign exchange receipts and macroeconomic performance is expected to be modest,” he said.
“This is essentially a question of materiality. The products affected account for only a small proportion of Nigeria’s total exports, while the dominant export category to the U.S. remains outside the scope of the tariffs.”
Yusuf, however, warned that the development reflects a broader shift in global trade policy towards increased protectionism.