The world exhaled deeply this week, though no one will admit it. After days of watching a US president threaten, on social media no less, to kill the Persian Civilization forever unless Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz and capitulated entirely, we got something almost anticlimactic: a pause in hostilities, brokered by Pakistan. Make no mistake—this was not a statesmanlike resolution. It was an eleventh-hour climb down by a man who painted himself into a corner and needed Islamabad to toss him a rope.
Let us rewind. The threats were biblical in scale and absurd in execution. The same man who once suggested injecting bleach into human lungs now wanted to delete an entire civilization—some 80 million people—from the earth. Iranian officials did what anyone who has watched this particular circus before would do: they mocked him. And rightly so. There is a pattern here. Make a threat so outrageous that no rational person would attempt it. Watch the deadline approach. Then invent a bizarre spin—a phantom regime change, a mysterious backchannel concession—to claim victory while quietly backing away from the abyss.
What baffles me, honestly, is not Trump’s mental state. By now we all know the lights are on but nobody’s home. What baffles me is the vaunted American democracy. Growing up in Nigeria, we were fed a steady diet of American exceptionalism. The United States was the perfect class act—democracy in action, institutions that could withstand any storm, leaders who bowed to no man because they bowed to the Constitution. Then I began watching US officials literally genuflect before this man. Grown adults, career diplomats, military brass—bending knees and licking boots like it was a chieftaincy installation in a local government secretariat. Something I swore only happened in the “shithole countries” Trump loves to insult. The irony is so thick you could spread it on 212 bread.
Many of Trump’s threats constituted war crimes. But of course, America is above international law. This is not new. Bush senior once said, with a full chest, that he did not care what the facts were and would never apologise for America. This was after the USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air Flight 655, killing 290 civilians. No apology. No accountability. Same energy when the US killed 160 little schoolgirls—refusing to acknowledge it, blaming Iran first, and when the evidence became undeniable, dismissing it with “well, the school was next to a military site.” Let that happen to American schoolgirls next to the armory in Fort Bragg, and the perpetrators would have been nuked back to the Stone Age because they are animals who murder kids for fun. That is not justice. That is the logic of a Turji, or a Baghdadi.
As Trump’s deadline crept closer, Iranians did something remarkable. They formed human shields around their installations. Not soldiers. Ordinary people. Men, women, children—daring the most powerful military in history to commit mass murder in broad daylight. But here is my assessment, and I will die on this hill: Trump was never going to wipe out Persian Civilization in a way that it would never rise again. Not in a day, not in a month, not ever. That order would have been disobeyed. Because that order meant the Holocaust of tens of millions. That is not war. That is omnicide. And the rest of the world—including the Gulf monarchies, including NATO’s rank and file—would not have stood by. That is WWIII. And in WWIII, there are no winners. Only ruins.
So there was always going to be a climb down. The only question was the vehicle. Trump was at least smart enough—and I use that word lightly—to include an off ramp in his own post. He claimed a regime change had already happened in Iran. New leadership, smarter and more reasonable. What is this man smoking?? So no need to delete a civilization after all. Never mind that Iranians woke up confused, asking, “Which regime change? Did we miss a coup?” It would not have been the first time Trump said something that only existed in his head. Or toupe. The man once claimed he had a secret peace plan for Afghanistan that the Afghan government knew nothing about. So yes, even without Pakistan, he would have invented some Gizo da Koki tale.
To be fair, Iran did walk back on its bravado. It did agree to open the Strait of Hormuz for the two-week ceasefire trial although with a condition that hands it the upper hand. The strait will be open, but traffic will be regulated by the IRGC. In effect, the strait remains under Iranian control.
But enter Pakistan. Islamabad saw the writing on the wall—and it was written in blood. If Iranian critical infrastructure was targeted, Iran would retaliate against Gulf critical infrastructure. Pakistan, which has a NATO-style pact with Saudi would then be legally obliged to intervene. And Pakistan, caught between a brotherly Iran and a bankrolling Saudi, would have been forced to choose. That is the last thing Pakistan wants. So they went into overdrive—shuttling between Tehran and Washington, sweating profusely, begging everyone to just calm down so their own hands could stay clean.
Now, the big question: will this two-week ceasefire hold? As of the time of filing this piece, there are already reports of violations. And the Israel-Hezbollah front still rages. No one has mentioned whether the Houthis in Yemen or the PMF in Iraq will hold their fire, especially if Israel insists on pushing to the Litani River and holding that ground. If that happens, can Iran really sit back? Unlikely. Iran has also made clear it will not accept the status quo of American bases dotting the Gulf like pimples on a teenager’s face. Will the US accept that? Will the Gulf countries, who pay through the nose for those bases while complaining that America only defends Israel, want to maintain that status quo? Or is this the beginning of an epic realignment?
And what of Oga Trump and his Zuma Rock- sized ego? He didn’t climb down only because of Pakistan. The Gulf monarchies were in his ear too. They knew what was coming—their oil infrastructure turned to glass. Their economies vaporised. And for what? For a tweet? So they pressured him. And Trump, who has never stood firm on anything except his own ego, folded. The American economy will also go broke if the Gulf dollars stopped raining down on Wall Street; and that is what will happen if they’re pauperised by Iranian Khorramshahrs and Shaheds.
What does this all mean? It means the age of American omnipotence is a fairy tale we told ourselves. It means a deranged man with nuclear codes can be walked back by a middle power and a few nervous kings. It means the world is more fragile than we care to admit—and also more resilient. Because ordinary Iranians formed human shields. Because Pakistan chose diplomacy over disaster. Because even a fool, when cornered, will look for a door.
The climb down was ugly. But it was better than the alternative. For now.